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World leaders convened in Switzerland for a summit on Saturday with the goal of urging Russia to halt its war in Ukraine. However, the absence of key allies of Moscow, notably China, has diluted the potential impact of the summit.

Absence of Key Allies

• Although many allies of Ukraine are participating, China opted to stay away after Russia was excluded from the proceedings, citing the event as futile and expressing no interest in attending.
• The absence of China diminishes hopes of isolating Moscow, particularly as recent military setbacks have put Ukraine at a disadvantage. Additionally, attention has been diverted from Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

Agenda and Discussions

• The discussions are anticipated to address broader concerns stemming from the conflict, such as food and nuclear security, and freedom of navigation.
• Sources indicate that a preliminary version of the summit’s declaration identifies Russia as the aggressor in the conflict.

Statements and Conditions

• Richard Gowan, the U.N. Director at the International Crisis Group, remarked that while the summit may highlight the constraints of Ukrainian diplomacy, it also provides an opportunity for Ukraine to underscore its commitment to the principles of the U.N. Charter.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would only cease its military operations in Ukraine if Kyiv abandoned its NATO aspirations and relinquished control of four disputed provinces, demands promptly rejected by Ukraine.

Diplomatic Stances

• Putin’s conditions reflect Moscow’s growing confidence in its military advantage in the conflict. Russia portrays its actions in Ukraine as part of a broader confrontation with the West, which it alleges seeks to weaken Russia. Kyiv and Western nations refute this narrative, accusing Russia of unlawful aggression.

Global Dynamics and Divisions

• Switzerland, at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, aims to facilitate a path toward a future peace process involving Russia. However, divisions among global powers regarding the conflict have overshadowed the summit. Zelenskiy has accused Beijing of assisting Moscow in undermining the gathering, an accusation refuted by China’s foreign ministry.

Participation and Challenges

• Approximately 90 countries and organizations have committed to the two-day summit, set to occur at the Buergenstock, a mountain resort in central Switzerland. Despite efforts to promote unity, the event faces challenges, including an alternative plan proposed by China.
• Notable attendees include U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and leaders from France, Germany, Italy, Britain, Canada, and Japan. Countries with friendlier ties to Russia, such as India, Turkey, and Hungary, are also expected to participate.

Outlook and Support

• Russia, which deployed tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine in February 2022, dismisses the summit as futile without its involvement.
• Supporters of Ukraine are organizing events in the nearby city of Lucerne to highlight the humanitarian toll of the conflict, including a demonstration demanding the release of prisoners and children taken to Russia.
• European officials acknowledge that without support from Moscow’s key allies, the summit’s impact may be limited. Daniel Woker, a former Swiss ambassador, questions the potential outcomes of the summit, suggesting it may serve as another incremental step in garnering international solidarity with Ukraine as a victim of Russian aggression.